Климат, лед, вода, ландшафты

Climate, ice, water, landscapes

Рудой Алексей Николаевич

Sea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? PRESENT

PAGES_news_2012-11_Cover_copy_copyPRESENT
OZEANSea level rise -
How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries?
Anny Cazenave
Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse, France;
Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript

© PAGES news • Vol 20 • No 1 • February 2012. p. 30

Sea level is a sensitive indicator of climate change and responds to global warming both directly and indirectly. It rises as oceans warm up and seawater expands, and also as mountain glaciers and ice sheets melt in response to increasing temperature. Tide gauge measurements available since the late 19th century indicate that the global mean sea level has risen by an average of 1.7-1.8 mm year-1 during the 20th century (Church and White 2011), marking the end of the relative stability of the past three millennia. Satellite data available since 1993 point to a higher mean rate of sealevel rise of 3.2±0.4 mm year-1 during the past two decades (Cazenave and Remy 2011) Ocean temperature data suggest that ocean thermal expansion has significantly increased during the second half of the 20th century, accounting for about 30% of the sea-level rise observed since 1993 (Cazenave and Remy 2011; Church et al. 2011a). Numerous observations have reported a worldwide retreat of glaciers during recent decades, with a significant acceleration of this retreat during the 1990s: this also contributes to about 30% of the sea-level rise. Change in land water storage due to natural climate variability contributes negligibly to sea level rise. Human activities (mostly underground water mining and dam building along rivers) have had large effects on sea level during the past six decades or so, but have mostly canceled each other out (Church et al. 2011a). Little was known before the 1990s on the mass balance of the ice sheets because of inadequate and incomplete observations. But remote sensing techniques available since then suggest that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerated rate, mostly from rapid outlet glacier flow and further iceberg discharge into the surrounding ocean (Steffen et al. 2010; Pfeffer 2011). For the period 1993-2003, less than 15% of the rate of global sea-level rise was due to the ice sheets. But their contribution has increased to ~70% since 2003-2004. Although not constant through time, mass loss from the ice sheets explains ~25% of the rate of sea-level rise since the early 1990s (Cazenave and Remy 2011; Church et al. 2011a). There is little doubt that global warming will continue and even increase during the future decades as greenhouse gas emissions, the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, are likely to keep growing. Projections from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) indicate that sea level in the year 2100 should be higher than today’s value by ~40 cm (within a range of ±15 cm due to model results dispersion and uncertainty on emissions). More recently it has been suggested that this value could be a lower bound. This is because the climate models at the time accounted for ocean warming and glacial melting (plus a surface mass balance component for the ice sheets) (IPCC 2007), but not for the recently observed dynamical processes that became quite active during the last decade (Steffen et al. 2010; Pfeffer 2011). Thus, mass loss from ice sheets could eventually represent a much larger contribution to future sea-level rise than previously expected (Pfeffer 2011). Yet, despite much recent progress in process understanding and modeling, the ice sheet contribution to 21st century sea-level rise remains highly uncertain. Values around 30-50 cm by 2100 cannot be ruled out for the total land ice (glaciers plus ice sheets) contribution. If we add the ocean-warming component (in the range 20-30 cm; IPCC 2007), global mean sea level at the end of this century could eventually exceed present-day elevation by 50-80 cm (e.g. Church et al. 2011b). Providing realistic sea-level projections remains a high priority in the climate modeling community given their importance to developing realistic coastal management and adaptation plans. But sustained and systematic monitoring of sea level and other climate parameters causing sea-level rise – for example, ocean heat content and land ice melt – is also needed.

sEEFigure 1: Twentieth century sea level curve (in black and associated uncertainty in light gray) based on tide gauge data and additional information (data from Church and White 2011). Box: altimetry-based sea level curve between 1993 and 2011 (data from AVISO; www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/data/products/sea-surface-height-products/global/msla/index.html). Blue points represent data at 10-day intervals, the red curve their 4-month smoothing (from Meyssignac and Cazenave, unpublished data).

The better we understand present-day sea-level rise and its variability, the better we will be able to project changes in future
sea level.
Selected references
Full reference list online under:
Cazenave A and Remy F (2011) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(5): 647-662
Church JA and White NJ (2011) Surveys in Geophysics 32(4-5): 585-602
Church JA et al. (2011a) Geophysical Research Letters 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794
Pfeffer WT (2011) Oceanography 24(2): 94-111
Steffen K et al. (2010) In: Church et al. (Eds) Understanding sea level rise and variability, Blackwell Publishing, 177
29.02.2012 00:14 10003
 

Комментарии  

 
#516 bluetooth earbuds 28.03.2015 20:22
fantastic issues altogether, you simply gained
a new reader. What could you recommend in regards to your submit that you made a few days ago?
Any certain?bluetooth
earbuds: http://wirelessheadphonesgurus.com
Цитировать
 
 
#515 beats headphones 28.03.2015 19:18
Appreciating the persistence you put into your blog and in depth information you offer.
It's awesome to come across a blog every
once in a while that isn't the same out of date rehashed material.
Wonderful read! I've saved your site and I'm including your RSS feeds to my Google account.beats headphones: http://wirelessheadphonesgurus.com
Цитировать
 
 
#514 beats headphones 27.03.2015 19:58
Hi there, its pleasant paragraph on the topic of media print, we all be
aware of media is a great source of data.beats headphones: http://wirelessheadphonesgurus.com
Цитировать
 
 
#513 tampa painter 27.03.2015 16:34
I pay a visit every day a few blogs and information sites to read articles, except this blog offers quality
based writing.
Цитировать
 
 
#512 house painter tampa 26.03.2015 14:01
What's up Dear, are you really visiting this site regularly,
if so afterward you will without doubt obtain pleasant knowledge.
Цитировать
 
 
#511 transcriptionist 18.03.2015 18:26
I just like the valuable information you provide in your
articles. I'll bookmark your blog and test once
more right here regularly. I am moderately certain I'll be informed plenty of new stuff right right here!

Best of luck for the following!
Цитировать
 
 
#510 transcription of 18.03.2015 18:26
Yes! Finally someone writes about player.
Цитировать
 
 
#509 free ebooks for 18.03.2015 13:32
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article.
I'll be sure to bookmark it and return to learn extra of your helpful info.

Thanks for the post. I will definitely return.
Цитировать
 
 
#508 transcription video 17.03.2015 20:34
It's perfect time to make a few plans for the long run and it's time to be happy.
I have read this publish and if I could I wish to suggest you some interesting things or tips.

Perhaps you can write subsequent articles referring
to this article. I desire to learn even more issues about it!
Цитировать
 
 
#507 transcription 17.03.2015 18:26
You ought to be a part of a contest for one of
the best blogs on the web. I'm going to recommend this blog!
Цитировать
 
 
#506 transcription 17.03.2015 14:11
Your style is very unique compared to other people I have read stuff
from. Thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I'll just bookmark
this blog.
Цитировать
 
 
#505 baseball mom shirts 17.03.2015 13:26
Young is rememberred as one of Major League Baseball. The following are purpose it chooxing a good
baseball bat iss a must to anyy baseball performance.
It has already bee proven that choosing a good
baseball bbat iis the beginning of choosing the right
equipment and thus, is the key to presenting a smooth
baseball gameplay.
Цитировать
 
 
#504 audio transcription 17.03.2015 12:19
Wow, marvelous blog layout! How long have you been running a
blog for? you make running a blog glance easy. The entire glance of your web site is magnificent, as well as the
content material!
Цитировать
 
 
#503 legal transcription 17.03.2015 11:18
I do not know whether it's just me or if perhaps everyone else encountering problems with your blog.
It looks like some of the written text on your posts are running off the screen.
Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening to
them too? This may be a problem with my internet browser because I've had this happen before.
Appreciate it
Цитировать
 
 
#502 transcription 17.03.2015 11:01
Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice at the same time as you
amend your website, how can i subscribe for a weblog website?
The account helped me a appropriate deal.
I were a little bit familiar of this your broadcast offered vibrant transparent concept
Цитировать
 
 
#501 transcriptionist 17.03.2015 10:09
Greetings I am so excited I found your website, I really found you by mistake, while I was
searching on Aol for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a marvelous
post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design),
I don't have time to look over it all at the moment but I have
saved it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I
have time I will be back to read a great deal more,
Please do keep up the great work.
Цитировать
 
 
#500 google audio 17.03.2015 09:35
This info is worth everyone's attention. When can I find out more?
Цитировать
 
 
#499 huntington court 17.03.2015 09:14
Hi, of course this paragraph is truly good and I have learned lot of things
from it regarding blogging. thanks.
Цитировать
 
 
#498 court recording 17.03.2015 07:48
Hey there, You've done an incredible job. I will certainly digg it and personally recommend to my friends.
I am confident they will be benefited from this web site.
Цитировать
 
 
#497 www.xxxsesso.net 17.03.2015 07:36
Hi there, after reading this remarkable paragraph i am too glad to share my familiarity here with friends.
Цитировать
 
 
#496 audioedge 17.03.2015 03:41
Every weekend i used to visit this web site, because i wish for enjoyment, since this this site
conations actually nice funny stuff too.
Цитировать
 
 
#495 transcription rates 17.03.2015 01:56
Hello, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks?
If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can advise?
I get so much lately it's driving me mad so any help is very much appreciated.
Цитировать
 
 
#494 transcription 17.03.2015 01:43
Today, I went to the beachfront with my kids.
I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said
"You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She placed the
shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it
pinched her ear. She never wants to go back!

LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to
tell someone!
Цитировать
 
 
#493 transcription 16.03.2015 23:53
I've read a few excellent stuff here. Certainly worth bookmarking for revisiting.
I wonder how a lot attempt you put to create this
kind of magnificent informative web site.
Цитировать
 
 
#492 transcription 16.03.2015 23:14
It's nearly impossible to find educated people in this particular
topic, however, you seem like you know what you're talking
about! Thanks
Цитировать
 
 
#491 transcription 16.03.2015 22:08
If some one needs to be updated with latest technologies after that he must be visit this website and be up to date daily.
Цитировать
 
 
#490 dragon city gems 16.03.2015 05:01
I do believe all of the concepts you have introduced on your post.
They're very convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are very
brief for novices. Could you please lengthen them a little from subsequent time?

Thank you for the post.

my blog post: dragon city gems hack cheat engine: http://hackgames.us/dragon-city-hack/
Цитировать
 
 
#489 transcription and 16.03.2015 04:39
Everything is very open with a very clear description of the challenges.
It was really informative. Your site is
extremely helpful. Thanks for sharing!
Цитировать
 
 
#488 transcription 16.03.2015 04:29
I'm gone to convey my little brother, that he should also visit
this webpage on regular basis to get updated from hottest reports.
Цитировать
 
 
#487 transcription 16.03.2015 00:30
The other day, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple ipad and tested to see if it can survive a twenty five
foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is
now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is completely off topic but I had
to share it with someone!
Цитировать
 
 
#486 cute brunette Babe 14.03.2015 20:48
I think this is one of the most vital information for me.
And i am glad reading your article. But should remark on few general things, The web site style is great, the articles is really excellent : D.
Good job, cheers
Цитировать
 
 
#485 bionda Tubo adulti 14.03.2015 18:37
Hey there! Someone in my Myspace group shared
this website with us so I came to check it out.
I'm definitely loving the information. I'm bookmarking
and will be tweeting this to my followers! Excellent blog and excellent design.
Цитировать
 
 
#484 perfume androvita 13.03.2015 23:22
Does your website have a contact page? I'm having trouble locating it but, I'd like to send you an email.
I've got some creative ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing.

Either way, great site and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.


Review my site perfume androvita: http://androvita.es/perfume-feromonas-hombre
Цитировать
 
 
#483 perfume feromonas 13.03.2015 15:22
Good day very cool blog!! Guy .. Beautiful ..
Superb .. I'll bookmark your web site and take the feeds additionally?
I'm glad to search out so many useful information here in the submit, we'd like work out more techniques in this regard, thanks for sharing.
. . . . .

My homepage ... perfume feromonas: http://androvita.es/perfume-feromonas-hombre
Цитировать
 
 
#482 Cinquante Nuances 11.03.2015 23:28
I like the valuable info you provide in your articles.
I'll bookmark your weblog and check again here frequently. I'm quite
sure I'll learn lots of new stuff right here! Good luck for the next!


Feel free to surf to my homepage: Cinquante Nuances de Grey Film Complet Streaming: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gT9BUbodFY4
Цитировать
 

Добавить комментарий


Прощай мой дом

JavaScript is disabled!
To display this content, you need a JavaScript capable browser.

О проекте

Всё об удивительном и загадочном мире льда и ледников, ландшафтов и людей и их жизни. Всё о планете Земля и о других планетах.

Интересы: снег, вода, горы, лед, катастрофы, все, климат, рельеф, ледники, приледниковые озёра, геоморфология, гляциология, новые теории и проекты в гляциологии, геологии и геоморфологии, а также качественная музыка и всё интересное и в науке, и в экспедициях, что сочтут для себя важным участники проекта, в природе и в жизни.. ....в общем всё.



Наши новости
Текущая информация для студентов
Ключевые слова
Авторизация



logotipЧитателям, слушателям и просто прохожим: сайт и все материалы, опубликованные на нём -  интеллектуальная собственность владельца сайта, и/или авторов соответствующих материалов. Ссылки на сайт, а также ссылки на авторов публикаций,

trudovaslava.info

(и фотографий, разумеется, тоже) обязательны. Соответствующие законы РФ и других стран известны, лицензии - на месте. Воруют, конечно, и не взирая на копирайты, но мы создали сайт для порядочных людей. Не хочется об этом напоминать, но факт любой недобросовестной ссылки-цитирования или пересказа, во- первых, будет предан широчайшей огласке через сеть всеми популярными научными каналами. А далее, возможно, последует и во-вторых..... Спасибо.

Контакты: ran@mail.tomsknet.ru