Климат, лед, вода, ландшафты

Climate, ice, water, landscapes

Рудой Алексей Николаевич

Sea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? PRESENT

OZEANSea level rise -
How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries?
Anny Cazenave
Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiale, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales, Toulouse, France;
Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript

© PAGES news • Vol 20 • No 1 • February 2012. p. 30

Sea level is a sensitive indicator of climate change and responds to global warming both directly and indirectly. It rises as oceans warm up and seawater expands, and also as mountain glaciers and ice sheets melt in response to increasing temperature. Tide gauge measurements available since the late 19th century indicate that the global mean sea level has risen by an average of 1.7-1.8 mm year-1 during the 20th century (Church and White 2011), marking the end of the relative stability of the past three millennia. Satellite data available since 1993 point to a higher mean rate of sealevel rise of 3.2±0.4 mm year-1 during the past two decades (Cazenave and Remy 2011) Ocean temperature data suggest that ocean thermal expansion has significantly increased during the second half of the 20th century, accounting for about 30% of the sea-level rise observed since 1993 (Cazenave and Remy 2011; Church et al. 2011a). Numerous observations have reported a worldwide retreat of glaciers during recent decades, with a significant acceleration of this retreat during the 1990s: this also contributes to about 30% of the sea-level rise. Change in land water storage due to natural climate variability contributes negligibly to sea level rise. Human activities (mostly underground water mining and dam building along rivers) have had large effects on sea level during the past six decades or so, but have mostly canceled each other out (Church et al. 2011a). Little was known before the 1990s on the mass balance of the ice sheets because of inadequate and incomplete observations. But remote sensing techniques available since then suggest that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerated rate, mostly from rapid outlet glacier flow and further iceberg discharge into the surrounding ocean (Steffen et al. 2010; Pfeffer 2011). For the period 1993-2003, less than 15% of the rate of global sea-level rise was due to the ice sheets. But their contribution has increased to ~70% since 2003-2004. Although not constant through time, mass loss from the ice sheets explains ~25% of the rate of sea-level rise since the early 1990s (Cazenave and Remy 2011; Church et al. 2011a). There is little doubt that global warming will continue and even increase during the future decades as greenhouse gas emissions, the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, are likely to keep growing. Projections from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) indicate that sea level in the year 2100 should be higher than today’s value by ~40 cm (within a range of ±15 cm due to model results dispersion and uncertainty on emissions). More recently it has been suggested that this value could be a lower bound. This is because the climate models at the time accounted for ocean warming and glacial melting (plus a surface mass balance component for the ice sheets) (IPCC 2007), but not for the recently observed dynamical processes that became quite active during the last decade (Steffen et al. 2010; Pfeffer 2011). Thus, mass loss from ice sheets could eventually represent a much larger contribution to future sea-level rise than previously expected (Pfeffer 2011). Yet, despite much recent progress in process understanding and modeling, the ice sheet contribution to 21st century sea-level rise remains highly uncertain. Values around 30-50 cm by 2100 cannot be ruled out for the total land ice (glaciers plus ice sheets) contribution. If we add the ocean-warming component (in the range 20-30 cm; IPCC 2007), global mean sea level at the end of this century could eventually exceed present-day elevation by 50-80 cm (e.g. Church et al. 2011b). Providing realistic sea-level projections remains a high priority in the climate modeling community given their importance to developing realistic coastal management and adaptation plans. But sustained and systematic monitoring of sea level and other climate parameters causing sea-level rise – for example, ocean heat content and land ice melt – is also needed.

sEEFigure 1: Twentieth century sea level curve (in black and associated uncertainty in light gray) based on tide gauge data and additional information (data from Church and White 2011). Box: altimetry-based sea level curve between 1993 and 2011 (data from AVISO; www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/data/products/sea-surface-height-products/global/msla/index.html). Blue points represent data at 10-day intervals, the red curve their 4-month smoothing (from Meyssignac and Cazenave, unpublished data).

The better we understand present-day sea-level rise and its variability, the better we will be able to project changes in future
sea level.
Selected references
Full reference list online under:
Cazenave A and Remy F (2011) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(5): 647-662
Church JA and White NJ (2011) Surveys in Geophysics 32(4-5): 585-602
Church JA et al. (2011a) Geophysical Research Letters 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794
Pfeffer WT (2011) Oceanography 24(2): 94-111
Steffen K et al. (2010) In: Church et al. (Eds) Understanding sea level rise and variability, Blackwell Publishing, 177
29.02.2012 00:14 6960


#225 comprar oxytrust 30.10.2014 14:50
I need to to thank you for this fantastic read!!
I absolutely loved every little bit of it. I have you
book marked to look at new things you post…

my homepage; comprar oxytrust: http://oxitocina.es/oxytrust
#224 michael kors bags 30.10.2014 01:14
Everyone loves what you guys are usually up too.
Such clever work and exposure! Keep up the great works guys
I've added you guys to my own blogroll.

Feel free to surf to my web-site: michael kors bags: http://tinyurl.com/oxhqcmd
#223 oxitocina 25.10.2014 08:25
I was extremely pleased to find this website. I need to to thank you for
your time due to this wonderful read!! I definitely
savored every bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out
new stuff in your blog.

Also visit my site oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/%C2%BFque-es-la-oxitocina
#222 perfume mujer 24.10.2014 20:10
Yes! Finally someone writes about perfume mujer: http://www.naturline.com/comprar-golden-love-feromonas-p-925.html.
#221 perfume feromonas 24.10.2014 17:45
Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more
than just your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and all.
Nevertheless just imagine if you added some great photos or videos to give
your posts more, "pop"! Your content is excellent but with pics and video clips, this website could definitely be one of the most beneficial in its field.
Great blog!

Here is my site; perfume
feromonas: http://perfumeferomonas.over-blog.com/
#220 comprar oxitocina 22.10.2014 13:46
Hey there! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you
if that would be okay. I'm definitely enjoying your blog and look
forward to new updates.

my web site :: comprar
oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/oxytrust
#219 oxitocina 21.10.2014 10:55
I all the time used to study piece of writing in news papers but now
as I am a user of web therefore from now I am using net for articles, thanks to web.

Also visit my weblog ... oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/oxytrust
#218 spray oxitocina 07.10.2014 00:56
I every time spent my half an hour to read this web site's articles all the time along with a mug of

Feel free to surf to my site :: spray
oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/oxytrust
#217 spray feromonas 03.10.2014 03:32
You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation however I in finding
this topic to be really something that I think I might never understand.
It sort of feels too complex and very wide for me. I'm having a look ahead for
your next publish, I will attempt to get the cling of it!

Here is my webpage - spray feromonas: http://oxitocina.es/enhanced
#216 fuck girls 02.10.2014 18:26
A person should just look forward to having fun and
meeting new people. Don't associate this email address with your other
email addresses. The reality is you may end up dating several men before your Prince comes along.

Here is my web page; fuck girls: http://laudoimagem.com.br/wiki/index.php?title=Usu%C3%A1rio_Discuss%C3%A3o:SharonWeatherbu
#215 trafic seo organique 01.10.2014 00:59
This piece of writing presents clear idea designed for the new viewers of blogging,
that genuinely how to do blogging.
#214 oxitocina 29.09.2014 07:23
Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the images aren't loading properly.
I'm not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I've tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.

Feel free to visit my page oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/enhanced
#213 oxitocina feromonas 29.09.2014 03:33
Piece of writing writing is also a excitement, if you be familiar with afterward you can write
otherwise it is complicated to write.

My site - oxitocina feromonas: http://oxitocina.es/enhanced
#212 perfume oxitocina 28.09.2014 21:49
Admiring the time and effort you put into your site and
in depth information you present. It's great to come
across a blog every once in a while that
isn't the same outdated rehashed information. Excellent read!
I've bookmarked your site and I'm including your RSS feeds to my Google account.

My blog ... perfume oxitocina: http://oxitocina.es/%C2%BFque-es-la-oxitocina
#211 oxitocina feromonas 23.09.2014 16:12
Right now it appears like BlogEngine is the best blogging platform available right now.

(from what I've read) Is that what you are using on your blog?

my web blog - oxitocina feromonas: http://oxitocina.es/enhanced

Добавить комментарий

Прощай мой дом

JavaScript is disabled!
To display this content, you need a JavaScript capable browser.

О проекте

Всё об удивительном и загадочном мире льда и ледников, ландшафтов и людей и их жизни. Всё о планете Земля и о других планетах.

Интересы: снег, вода, горы, лед, катастрофы, все, климат, рельеф, ледники, приледниковые озёра, геоморфология, гляциология, новые теории и проекты в гляциологии, геологии и геоморфологии, а также качественная музыка и всё интересное и в науке, и в экспедициях, что сочтут для себя важным участники проекта, в природе и в жизни.. ....в общем всё.

Наши новости
Текущая информация для студентов
Ключевые слова

logotipЧитателям, слушателям и просто прохожим: сайт и все материалы, опубликованные на нём -  интеллектуальная собственность владельца сайта, и/или авторов соответствующих материалов. Ссылки на сайт, а также ссылки на авторов публикаций,


(и фотографий, разумеется, тоже) обязательны. Соответствующие законы РФ и других стран известны, лицензии - на месте. Воруют, конечно, и не взирая на копирайты, но мы создали сайт для порядочных людей. Не хочется об этом напоминать, но факт любой недобросовестной ссылки-цитирования или пересказа, во- первых, будет предан широчайшей огласке через сеть всеми популярными научными каналами. А далее, возможно, последует и во-вторых..... Спасибо.

Контакты: ran@mail.tomsknet.ru