Климат, лед, вода, ландшафты

Climate, ice, water, landscapes

Рудой Алексей Николаевич

Sea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? PAST

evening-seaSea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? Past.
Mark Siddall1 and David Pollard2
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript
2Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA

©PAGES news • Vol 20 • No 1 • February 2012. p. 31

The time scales of major West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) growth and retreat are centuries to millennia. Instrumental records around West Antarctica are only a few decades long and can therefore only offer a single snapshot of a moving target. The recent observed breakup of some Peninsula ice shelves, and accelerated flow and thinning of their upstream glaciers and Pine Island-Thwaites glaciers (e.g. Shepherd et al. 2003; Pritchard and Vaughan 2007; Jenkins et al. 2010), may be harbingers of future retreat, but by themselves shed little light on potential progression into a full collapse of central WAIS. If anything, contemporary observations indicate ever more pressingly that paleo data are uniquely placed to understand the collapse of the WAIS. Sub-ice shelf warming of part of the WAIS (Jenkins et al. 2010) indicates oceanographic phenomena bringing warm water masses onto the shelf next to the WAIS that may well turn out to be analogous to past collapse events once we understand more fully the processes behind them. It is critical to understand, not just the ice sheet itself, but the oceanography of the Antarctic shelves and sub-ice shelf systems. Oceanic modeling of these systems is challenging, and studies of past and future changes are in early stages of development (e.g. Holland et al. 2008; Olbers and Hellmer 2010; Dinniman et al. 2011).
This is where studies such as ANDRILL (Naish et al. 2009) that span the relevant time periods truly come into their own. Such studies have provided substantial evidence from different climate states implying that drastic collapses of marine-based WAIS occurred during the warmest intervals of the Pleistocene and Pliocene. Coupled with related modeling studies (e.g. Pollard and DeConto 2009), these data represent among the best opportunities to understand the potential collapse of the WAIS during past warm periods. Because of the availability of data, the Last Interglacial (LIG) has become an important target for the question of WAIS stability (e.g. Siddall and Valdes 2011). Estimates of eustatic sea level based on glacio-isostatic modeling of relative sea-level data for the LIG indicate that sea levels approached around 8-9 m above modern (Kopp et al. 2009). At the same time, a number of model-data syntheses have concluded that the maximum contribution to sea level from Greenland was only several meters at most (see Colville et al. 2011 for a recent review) and the contribution from thermal expansion was only in the tens of centimeters (McKay et al. 2011). The gap between the eustatic sea-level rise and plausible Greenland and steric contributions lead to the unavoidable conclusion that the WAIS did indeed reduce dramatically for LIG conditions. Further careful studies may well show more precisely by how much and under what oceanographic conditions this collapse occurred, and whether collapses occurred in earlier Pleistocene interglacials (Scherer et al. 2008; Hillenbrand et al. 2009). For human populations this issue does not end with the question as to under what conditions will the WAIS begin to reduce dramatically. Two other questions arise – at what rate will it reduce and how will the ice-volume be redistributed in the ocean?
Multiple studies of relative sea level during the LIG tentatively suggest rates of sea-level rise of the order of one meter per century resulting from ice sheet reduction beyond that which we have observed in the late Holocene (Rohling et al. 2008; Kopp et al. 2009; Thompson et al. 2011). Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling of scenarios regarding the WAIS collapse indicate a 50% variability in local sea-level rise resulting from the collapse of the WAIS (Mitrovica et al. 2009). GIA models have been constructed largely to explain GIA responses since the Last Glacial Maximum and therefore paleo data is crucial to understand if the WAIS will collapse in the coming century, the rate of sea-level rise and its global distribution. Given the complexity of ice sheet behavior it would be easy to become focused entirely on modern observations and state of the art deterministic models. Here we have argued for the careful, focused use of paleo data to understand the potential for the collapse of the WAIS in the next century and its implications for local populations.
Visite the PALSEA web site for more details: http://eis.bris.ac.uk/~glyms/working_group. html
Selected references
Full reference list online under:
Colville EJ et al. (2011) Science 333: 620-623
Mitrovica JX, Gomez N and Clark P (2009) Science 323: 753
Naish T et al. (2009) Nature 458: 322-328
Pollard D and DeConto RM (2009) Nature 458: 329-332
Siddall M and Valdes PJ (2011) Nature Geosciences 1: 299-300
Figure 1: Snapshots of modeled ice distribution, essentially as in Pollard and DeConto 2009, showing collapse of WAIS marine ice leading into Marine Isotope Stage 31, a major interglacial event ca. 1.08 to 1.06 Ma (Scherer et al. 2008; DeConto et al., unpublished data). Grounded ice elevations (m) are shown by the rainbow scale, and floating ice thicknesses (m) by the pink scale. The approximate location of Cape Roberts and ANDRILL sediment cores (Scherer et al. 2008; Naish et al. 2009) is shown by a black dot. 
29.02.2012 12:15 7862


#464 Nike Free run 30.09.2014 18:46
Hi there! I could have sworn I've visited your blog
before but after browsing through some of the articles I realized it's new to me.
Anyways, I'm certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and I'll be book-marking it and checking back often!
#463 christmas jewelry 29.09.2014 21:00
I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here.
The sketch is tasteful, your authored material stylish.
nonetheless, you command get bought an nervousness
over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case
you shield this increase.
#462 botas ugg precio 29.09.2014 19:40
You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be really something which I think I would
never understand. It seems too complex and very
broad for me. I'm looking forward for your next post, I'll try to get the hang of it!
#461 psn code generator 29.09.2014 18:39
Good post. I learn something new and challenging on websites
I stumbleupon everyday. It's always exciting to read through articles from other writers and use a little
something from their web sites.

Also visit my weblog :: psn code
generator no survey: http://test.starwebs.ro/groups/the-ultimate-guide-to-psn-code-generator/
#460 botas ugg outlet 29.09.2014 14:36
I used to be able to find good info from your content.
#459 ugg baratas 29.09.2014 08:48
I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am not certain whether
this submit is written by him as nobody else realize such distinct
about my problem. You're incredible! Thank you!
#458 botas ugg baratas 29.09.2014 04:20
Hi! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be ok.
I'm absolutely enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.
#457 free $50 psn codes 29.09.2014 03:53
That is a great tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere.
Simple but very accurate info… Thank you for
sharing this one. A must read post!

Visit my page :: free $50 psn codes: http://www.walkinginmemphisinhighheels.com/2014/09/what-to-pack-in-your-vera-bradley.html
#456 yes bridal dresses 27.09.2014 17:23
I do not know whethe it's just me or if everybody else encountering problems with your website.
It looks like some of the written text within your content are running off
the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let
me know if this is happening to them too? This might be a issue
with my internet browser because I've had this happen before.

Many thanks
#455 Nike Free 6.0 Men 27.09.2014 15:56
Keep on writing, great job!
#454 ugg australia 27.09.2014 11:06
If you wish for to take much from this paragraph then you have to apply such techniques to your won web site.
#453 free psn card codes 27.09.2014 10:43
I'm gone to tеll my littlе brother, that he shߋuld also go to see tҺіs website on regular basis tο
tɑke updated frοm hottest reports.

Αlso visit mʏ webpage; free psn card
codes: http://www.lelytank.com/UserProfile/tabid/43/userId/160282/Default.aspx
#452 ugg outlet 27.09.2014 09:34
WOW just what I was searching for. Came here by searching for guantes ugg
#451 ugg outlet 27.09.2014 07:51
Every weekend i used to pay a quick visit this site, because
i wish for enjoyment, as this this web site conations in fact
fastidious funny data too.
#450 botas ugg 27.09.2014 05:00
Hey would you mind stating which blog platform
you're working with? I'm going to start my own blog in the near future but
I'm having a difficult time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
The reason I ask is because your layout seems different
then most blogs and I'm looking for something unique.
P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!
#449 botas ugg outlet 27.09.2014 04:07
Hello there, just became aware of your blog through
Google, and found that it is truly informative.
I am gonna watch out for brussels. I will be grateful if you continue this in future.
Lots of people will be benefited from your writing.

#448 guantes ugg 27.09.2014 04:01
Good site you have got here.. It's hard to find good quality writing
like yours these days. I honestly appreciate people like you!
Take care!!
#447 botas ugg online 26.09.2014 23:55
My spouse and I stumbled over here coming from a different website
and thought I might check things out. I like what I
see so i am just following you. Look forward to going
over your web page yet again.
#446 ugg españa 26.09.2014 12:33
You can definitely see your expertise in the work
you write. The world hopes for even more passionate writers such as you who aren't afraid to mention how they believe.
Always follow your heart.
#445 ugg españa 26.09.2014 10:56
An outstanding share! I've just forwarded this onto a co-worker who had been conducting a
little homework on this. And he actually bought me breakfast simply because I discovered it for him...
lol. So let me reword this.... Thanks for the meal!!

But yeah, thanx for spending time to discuss this subject here on your
internet site.
#444 Free psn Codes 25.09.2014 21:00
I do not even know how I ended up here,
but I thought this post was good. I do not know who you are but certainly you're going to a famous blogger if you aren't
already ;) Cheers!

Check out my web blog; Free psn Codes: http://Psncodegeneratornow.com/free-psn-codes/
#443 botas ugg españa 25.09.2014 19:19
Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The
text in your post seem to be running off the screen in Safari.

I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet
browser compatibility but I figured I'd post to let you know.
The design and style look great though! Hope you get the problem resolved soon. Cheers
#442 free psn code 24.09.2014 21:29
It's impressive that you are getting ideas from this article as well as from our argument made
at this time.

My website - free psn code generator: http://Www.wallback.cc/profile/lithatcher
#441 ankara web tasarim 24.09.2014 20:02
I every time emailed this blog post page to all my friends, for the reason that if like to read it
next my links will too.
#440 free psn cards 24.09.2014 15:39
Hey would you mind sharing which blog platform you're working with?
I'm looking to start my own blog in the near future
but I'm having a hard time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I'm looking for something completely unique.
P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!

Feel free to surf to my web-site :: free psn cards: http://playstation-4-tips.webnode.com
#439 free Psn card Codes 24.09.2014 08:39
I'm not sure why but this site is loading extremely slow for me.
Is anyone else having this problem or is it a problem on my
end? I'll check back later and see if the problem still exists.

My site - free Psn card Codes: http://emrahhatipoglu.com/groups/the-ultimate-secret-of-free-psn-codes/
#438 Nike Free Run + 3 22.09.2014 21:06
It's a pity you don't have a donate button! I'd without a doubt donate to this fantastic blog!
I guess for now i'll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account.
I look forward to new updates and will talk about this site with my Facebook
group. Chat soon!
#437 replica rolex 21.09.2014 22:36
It is the best time to make some plans for the longer term and it is time to be happy.
I have learn this submit and if I may just I want to counsel you few
attention-grabbing issues or advice. Perhaps you could write
next articles referring to this article. I want to read more issues about
#436 free psn cards 21.09.2014 15:37
Hi there i am kavin, its my first time to commenting anyplace, when i read this piece of writing i thought
i could also create comment due to this sensible paragraph.

Review my page :: free psn cards: http://is.gd/rcqv7P
#435 free psn codes 21.09.2014 15:10
Very good article. I absolutely appreciate this site.
Stick with it!

Also visit my blog free
psn codes: http://snipurl.com/299kxgm
#434 psn Code generator 21.09.2014 15:03
Great post. I will be facing a few of these
issues as well..

Stop by my web page psn Code generator Download: http://snipurl.com/299kv03

Добавить комментарий

Прощай мой дом

JavaScript is disabled!
To display this content, you need a JavaScript capable browser.

О проекте

Всё об удивительном и загадочном мире льда и ледников, ландшафтов и людей и их жизни. Всё о планете Земля и о других планетах.

Интересы: снег, вода, горы, лед, катастрофы, все, климат, рельеф, ледники, приледниковые озёра, геоморфология, гляциология, новые теории и проекты в гляциологии, геологии и геоморфологии, а также качественная музыка и всё интересное и в науке, и в экспедициях, что сочтут для себя важным участники проекта, в природе и в жизни.. ....в общем всё.

Наши новости
Текущая информация для студентов
Ключевые слова

logotipЧитателям, слушателям и просто прохожим: сайт и все материалы, опубликованные на нём -  интеллектуальная собственность владельца сайта, и/или авторов соответствующих материалов. Ссылки на сайт, а также ссылки на авторов публикаций,


(и фотографий, разумеется, тоже) обязательны. Соответствующие законы РФ и других стран известны, лицензии - на месте. Воруют, конечно, и не взирая на копирайты, но мы создали сайт для порядочных людей. Не хочется об этом напоминать, но факт любой недобросовестной ссылки-цитирования или пересказа, во- первых, будет предан широчайшей огласке через сеть всеми популярными научными каналами. А далее, возможно, последует и во-вторых..... Спасибо.

Контакты: ran@mail.tomsknet.ru