Климат, лед, вода, ландшафты

Climate, ice, water, landscapes

Рудой Алексей Николаевич

Sea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? PAST

evening-seaSea level rise - How much and how fast will sea level rise over the coming centuries? Past.
Mark Siddall1 and David Pollard2
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK; Этот e-mail адрес защищен от спам-ботов, для его просмотра у Вас должен быть включен Javascript
2Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA

©PAGES news • Vol 20 • No 1 • February 2012. p. 31

The time scales of major West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) growth and retreat are centuries to millennia. Instrumental records around West Antarctica are only a few decades long and can therefore only offer a single snapshot of a moving target. The recent observed breakup of some Peninsula ice shelves, and accelerated flow and thinning of their upstream glaciers and Pine Island-Thwaites glaciers (e.g. Shepherd et al. 2003; Pritchard and Vaughan 2007; Jenkins et al. 2010), may be harbingers of future retreat, but by themselves shed little light on potential progression into a full collapse of central WAIS. If anything, contemporary observations indicate ever more pressingly that paleo data are uniquely placed to understand the collapse of the WAIS. Sub-ice shelf warming of part of the WAIS (Jenkins et al. 2010) indicates oceanographic phenomena bringing warm water masses onto the shelf next to the WAIS that may well turn out to be analogous to past collapse events once we understand more fully the processes behind them. It is critical to understand, not just the ice sheet itself, but the oceanography of the Antarctic shelves and sub-ice shelf systems. Oceanic modeling of these systems is challenging, and studies of past and future changes are in early stages of development (e.g. Holland et al. 2008; Olbers and Hellmer 2010; Dinniman et al. 2011).
This is where studies such as ANDRILL (Naish et al. 2009) that span the relevant time periods truly come into their own. Such studies have provided substantial evidence from different climate states implying that drastic collapses of marine-based WAIS occurred during the warmest intervals of the Pleistocene and Pliocene. Coupled with related modeling studies (e.g. Pollard and DeConto 2009), these data represent among the best opportunities to understand the potential collapse of the WAIS during past warm periods. Because of the availability of data, the Last Interglacial (LIG) has become an important target for the question of WAIS stability (e.g. Siddall and Valdes 2011). Estimates of eustatic sea level based on glacio-isostatic modeling of relative sea-level data for the LIG indicate that sea levels approached around 8-9 m above modern (Kopp et al. 2009). At the same time, a number of model-data syntheses have concluded that the maximum contribution to sea level from Greenland was only several meters at most (see Colville et al. 2011 for a recent review) and the contribution from thermal expansion was only in the tens of centimeters (McKay et al. 2011). The gap between the eustatic sea-level rise and plausible Greenland and steric contributions lead to the unavoidable conclusion that the WAIS did indeed reduce dramatically for LIG conditions. Further careful studies may well show more precisely by how much and under what oceanographic conditions this collapse occurred, and whether collapses occurred in earlier Pleistocene interglacials (Scherer et al. 2008; Hillenbrand et al. 2009). For human populations this issue does not end with the question as to under what conditions will the WAIS begin to reduce dramatically. Two other questions arise – at what rate will it reduce and how will the ice-volume be redistributed in the ocean?
Multiple studies of relative sea level during the LIG tentatively suggest rates of sea-level rise of the order of one meter per century resulting from ice sheet reduction beyond that which we have observed in the late Holocene (Rohling et al. 2008; Kopp et al. 2009; Thompson et al. 2011). Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling of scenarios regarding the WAIS collapse indicate a 50% variability in local sea-level rise resulting from the collapse of the WAIS (Mitrovica et al. 2009). GIA models have been constructed largely to explain GIA responses since the Last Glacial Maximum and therefore paleo data is crucial to understand if the WAIS will collapse in the coming century, the rate of sea-level rise and its global distribution. Given the complexity of ice sheet behavior it would be easy to become focused entirely on modern observations and state of the art deterministic models. Here we have argued for the careful, focused use of paleo data to understand the potential for the collapse of the WAIS in the next century and its implications for local populations.
Visite the PALSEA web site for more details: http://eis.bris.ac.uk/~glyms/working_group. html
Selected references
Full reference list online under:
Colville EJ et al. (2011) Science 333: 620-623
Mitrovica JX, Gomez N and Clark P (2009) Science 323: 753
Naish T et al. (2009) Nature 458: 322-328
Pollard D and DeConto RM (2009) Nature 458: 329-332
Siddall M and Valdes PJ (2011) Nature Geosciences 1: 299-300
Figure 1: Snapshots of modeled ice distribution, essentially as in Pollard and DeConto 2009, showing collapse of WAIS marine ice leading into Marine Isotope Stage 31, a major interglacial event ca. 1.08 to 1.06 Ma (Scherer et al. 2008; DeConto et al., unpublished data). Grounded ice elevations (m) are shown by the rainbow scale, and floating ice thicknesses (m) by the pink scale. The approximate location of Cape Roberts and ANDRILL sediment cores (Scherer et al. 2008; Naish et al. 2009) is shown by a black dot. 
29.02.2012 12:15 12267


#924 Surfaceco 07.03.2015 02:54
These are really enormous ideas in regarding blogging.

You have touched some fastidious factors here.
Any way keep up wrinting.

Have a look at my homepaghe Surfaceco: http://surfaceco.uk/caesarstone-worktops/
#923 cimstone tops 07.03.2015 02:20
You really male it seem so easy along with your presentation however
I in finding this topic to be actually one thing which I believe I'd
by no means understand. It sort of feels too complex and extremely
extensive for me. I am looking forward to your subsequent submit,
I will try to get the dangle of it!

my webpage cimstone tops: http://surfaceco.uk/cimstone-worktops/
#922 occasion dresses 06.03.2015 23:22
Today, I went to the beach front with mmy kids.

I found a seaa shell and gave it to my 4
year old daughter and said "You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear." She placed the shell to hher ear
and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear.
She never wants to go back! LoL I know this
is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!
#921 KITCHEN PLANNING 06.03.2015 20:09
Hi there, i read your blog from timee to time and i owwn a similar one and
i was just curious if you get a lot of spam feedback? If so how do you reduce it,
any plugin or anything you can recommend? I get so much lately it's
driving mme insane so any assistance is very much appreciated.

Also visit my weblog: KITCHEN PLANNING: http://Inovakitchens.com/kitchen-planning-2/
#920 german kitchens 06.03.2015 20:04
Greetings! Very useful advice within this post! It's the
little changes that produce the biggest changes. Many
thanks for sharing!

Also visit my blog post - german kitchens: http://Inovakitchens.com/
#919 CHIPPENDALE KITCHENS 06.03.2015 19:13
Hi are using Wordpress for your site platform?
I'm new to the blog world but I'm tryying to gget started
and create my own. Do you need any html coding knowledge too make
your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!

My site: CHIPPENDALE KITCHENS: http://inovakitchens.com/our-brands/chippendale-kitchens/
#918 Marylyn 06.03.2015 18:26
Nice blog here! Also your website loads up fast!
What host are you using? Caan I get your affiliate link to your host?
I wish myy web site loaded up as fast as yours lol

Also visit my homepage; KITCHEN FITTING (Marylyn: http://inovakitchens.com/kitchen-fitting/)
#917 MACKINTOSH KITCHENS 06.03.2015 18:06
Sweet blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News.

Do you hhave anyy suggestions on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying foor a while but I never seem to get there!

Alsoo visit my web-site: MACKINTOSH KITCHENS: http://inovakitchens.com/our-brands/mereway-kitchens/
#916 Kitchen Worktops in 06.03.2015 14:49
Hi there Dear, are you in fact visiting this website daily, if so after that
you wipl definitely take nice knowledge.

Feel free too visit my website: Kitchen Worktops in Reading: http://surfaceco.uk/
#915 Odell 06.03.2015 10:49
Hi there, yes this post is truhly good aand I have learned lot
of things from it about blogging. thanks.

my web site; KITCHEN DESIGNING - Odell: http://Inovakitchens.com/kitchen-design-2/ -
#914 cheap short purple 06.03.2015 02:48
My partner and I absolutely love your blog andd find nearly all of your post's to be exactly I'm looking for.
Does one offer guest writrs to write content for you? I wouldn't mind composing a post
or elaborating on many of the subjects you write
regarding here. Again, awesome web site!
#913 Olga 05.03.2015 21:48
Hmm it appears like your website ate my first comment
(it was extremely long) so I guess I'll just sum it up what I wrote
and say, I'm thoroughlly enjoing your blog. I as
well am an aspiring blog blogger but I'm still new to the whole
thing. Do yyou have any helpful hints foor newbie
blog writers? I'd reazlly appreciate it.

Also visit my website - MEREWAY KITCHENS; Olga: http://inovakitchens.com/our-brands/mackintosh-kitchens/,
#912 club dresses 05.03.2015 21:30
Hi there would you mind letting me know which webhost you're using?
I've loaded your blog in 3 completely different browsers
and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most.

Can you recommend a good internet hosting provider at a honest price?

Thanks, I appreciate it!
#911 where to buy a red 05.03.2015 18:54
Hola! I've been readin your website for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Atascocita
Tx! Just wanted to say keep uup the excellent job!
#910 KITCHEN PRICING 05.03.2015 11:19
It's going to be end of mine day, however before finish I am reading this great paragraph to increase my know-how.

my webpage KITCHEN PRICING: http://inovakitchens.com/kitchen-pricing/
#909 zapatillas new 05.03.2015 03:23
Hi there to all, the contents existing at this web site are really amazing for people knowledge, well, keep up the nice work fellows.
#908 Hung 04.03.2015 02:25
I seriouslly love your website.. Excellent colors & theme.
Did you make this website yourself? Please reply back aas I'm planning to create my owwn personal website and
want to find out where you got this from or exactly what
the theme is called. Thank you!

Also visit mmy site; leicht kitchens (Hung: http://inovakitchens.com/our-brands/leicht-kitchens-2/)
#907 club dresses online 03.03.2015 04:08
Goood day! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace
group? There's a lot of people that I think would really appreciate your
content. Please let me know. Thank you
#906 visite site 02.03.2015 20:08
Why viewers still make use of to read news papers when in this technological globe the whole thing is existing on web?

my site; visite site: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lx0csW8auw
#905 Quartz Kitchens 01.03.2015 16:05
An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a
ffriend who was doiung a little homework on this.
And he actually ordered mee breakfast because I discovered iit
for him... lol. So let me reword this.... Thank YOU for
the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to discuss this matter here on your internet site.

Also visit my weblog; Quartz Kitchens: http://surfaceco.uk/quartz-worktops/
#904 new balance baratas 28.02.2015 23:34
What's up, just wanted to mention, I loved this post.
It was funny. Keep on posting!
#903 meble kuchenne 28.02.2015 16:09
Hi, every time i used to check web site posts here in the early hours in the break of day, as i love to learn more and more.
#902 long dresses for 28.02.2015 10:04
Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems
aas though you relied on the video to make your point.
You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on jhst posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something informative to read?
#901 szafy na zamó 27.02.2015 19:08
When I originally commented I clicked the "Notify me when new comments are added" checkbox and now each time a
comment is added I get four emails with the same
comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
Bless you!
#900 torby męskie 26.02.2015 20:14
hi!,I like your writing very so much! proportion we keep up a correspondence more about
your article on AOL? I need a specialist in this house to resolve
my problem. May be that is you! Taking a look ahead to peer you.
#899 okulary białystok 26.02.2015 19:33
Nice blog here! Also your site loads up very fast!

What web host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to
your host? I wish my web site loaded up as quickly
as yours lol
#898 green dress with 25.02.2015 11:41
Very good website you have here but I was crious about
if you knew of any message boards that cover the same topics talked about here?
I'd really likoe to be a part of community where I can get feedback
from oher knowledgeable people that share the same interest.

If you have any suggestions, please let me know.
Bless you!
#897 Nike Air Max TN 25.02.2015 01:00
Hi, after reading this amazing article i am as well
happy to share my knowledge here with friends.
#896 Kitchen Countertops 24.02.2015 09:44
Wow, wwonderful blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
you made blogging looik easy. The overall look of your web site is excellent,
as well as the content!

my blog post ... Kitchen Countertops: http://surfaceco.uk/
#895 How to get rid of 24.02.2015 00:11
Asking questions are actually nice thing if you
are not understanding anything fully, except this piece of writing presents fastidious understandimg yet.

My webpage :: How
to get rid of double chin: http://www.profaraujo.com/wikiadm/index.php?title=Do_You_Might_Have_A_Double_Chin_The_Elimination_Of_This_Situation
#894 Air Max 1 Baratas 23.02.2015 12:59
I do not even understand how I finished up right here,
but I believed this submit was good. I don't recognize who you're however certainly you are going to a well-known blogger if you are
not already. Cheers!
#893 รับทำ seo 23.02.2015 12:58
Thanks for your personal marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed reading it, you're a great author.
I will be sure to bookmark your blog and will come back
later on. I want to encourage one to continue your great posts, have a nice holiday weekend!
#892 รับทำ seo 22.02.2015 01:19
Good post but I was wondering if you could write a litte more
on this subject? I'd be very thankful if you
could elaborate a little bit more. Thank you!
#891 cheap nike air max 2 21.02.2015 22:00
It's awesome in support of me to have a website, which is good designed for my know-how.
thanks admin
#890 xtrasize non 21.02.2015 20:13
Penserai «Due mesi sono una vita! ) e pillole.
#889 long dresses for 21.02.2015 19:15
Greetings! This is my first visit to your blog!
We are a team of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche.

Your blog provided us useful infodmation to work on. You have
done a outstanding job!
#888 long dresses for 21.02.2015 12:10
Howdy outstanding blog! Does running a blog such as this take a lot of
work? I've very little knowledge of programming however
I had een hoping to start mmy own blog soon. Anyhow, should
you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners please share.
I unjderstand thks is off subject however I just needed to ask.

#887 seo services uk 21.02.2015 11:12
Asking questions are actually pleasant thing if you are not understanding something entirely, but this post offers nice understanding yet.

Feel free to surf to my pge - seo services
uk: http://www.digitallatitude.net/seo-services/
#886 ladies robin hood 20.02.2015 03:38
Hello exceptional blog! Does running a blog like this require a lot off work?
I've no understanding of computer programming however I
was hoping to start my own blog in the near future.
Anyhow, if you have any suggestions or tips for new blog owners please share.
I understand this is off subject nevertheless I just needed to ask.
#885 calzoncillos calvin 19.02.2015 20:21
I love what you guys are usually up too. Such clever work and exposure!
Keep up the excellent works guys I've incorporated you guys
to our blogroll.
#884 tee shirt dresses 19.02.2015 02:35
Good day! I know this is kinda off topic however I'd figured
I'd ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing
a blog post or vice-versa? My site covers a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe wee could greatly benefit from each other.
If you're interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail. I look forward to
hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!
#883 Piumini Moncler 18.02.2015 13:02
Actually when someone doesn't know afterward its up to other viewers that they will assist, so
here it occurs.
#882 calzoncillos calvin 18.02.2015 10:55
My brother recommended I might like this website.
He was totally right. This post truly made my day.
You cann't believe simply how a lot time I had spent for this information! Thank you!
#881 calvin klein mutande 17.02.2015 03:25
This website was... how do I say it? Relevant!!
Finally I've found something that helped me. Thanks!
#880 http://www. 17.02.2015 03:06
Le donne sposate hanno bisogno di qualcuno che si
occupi di loro che le soddisfi in ogni aspetto della loro vita.
#879 The best sites to 15.02.2015 08:10
That is a great tip especially to those fresh to The best sites to buy instagram followers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frI6RoNhMC8
blogosphere. Simple but very precise info… Thanks for sharing this one.
A must read post!
#878 green dress shirts 14.02.2015 21:43
I'm trulky enjoying the design and layout of yourr site.
It's a very easy on the eyes which makkes it much more pleasant for me to come
here and visit more often. Did you hire out a designer to create your
theme? Outstanding work!
#877 nike air max mujer 14.02.2015 13:09
Since the admin of this site is working, no uncertainty very soon it will be renowned, due to its quality contents.
#876 2015 Local SEO 13.02.2015 01:04
I'm nott sure exactly why but this web site is loading extremely slow for me.
Is anyone else having this problem or is it a
issue on my end? I'llcheck back later and see if the problem still exists.

my webpage; 2015 Local SEO Checklist: https://www.plurk.com/p/kr6jmb
#875 Moncler 2014 Outlet 13.02.2015 00:52
Hey terrific website! Does running a blog similar to this take a lot of work?
I have virtually no expertise in coding however I was hoping to start my own blog soon. Anyhow, should you have any ideas or techniques for new blog owners please share.
I understand this is off subject however I simply had to ask.
Many thanks!
#874 http://masskrug.org 12.02.2015 18:02
Excellent post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!
Very useful info specifically the last part :) I care for such info much.
I was looking for this certain info for a long time.
Thank you and best of luck.
#873 cheap jordan shoes 12.02.2015 02:50
Quality articles or reviews is the main to interest the people to go
to see the website, that's what this web site
is providing.
#872 animal fancy dress 11.02.2015 06:15
Hey there! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a collection of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche.
Your blog provided us beneficial information to
work on. You have done a wonderful job!
#871 new balance spain 10.02.2015 23:44
Hurrah, that's what I was exploring for, what a
data! present here at this web site, thanks admin of this website.
#870 http://www.edarling. 10.02.2015 17:08
Hi there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with
Search Engine Optimization? I'm trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords
but I'm not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share.

#869 new balance 10.02.2015 12:29
You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter
to be actually something which I think I would never understand.

It seems too complicated and very broad for me.
I am looking forward for your next post, I will
try to get the hang of it!
#868 zapatillas new 10.02.2015 09:06
Wonderful goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff
previous to and you're just too wonderful. I really like what you have acquired here, really like what you're stating and the best way in which you say it.
You're making it enjoyable and you still take care of
to stay it wise. I can't wait to learn much more from you.
This is really a great web site.
#867 tennis dresses for 09.02.2015 17:47
I'm really enjoying the theme/design of your blog. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility issues?

A number of my blog readers have complaihed about my blog nott operating correctly in Explorer but
looks great in Safari. Do you have any solutions
to help fix this problem?
#866 long dresses for 09.02.2015 11:40
Hello there! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you
if that would be ok. I'm undoubtedxly enjoying your blog and look forward to new posts.
#865 terminator fancy 09.02.2015 09:27
Heya are using Wordpress for your site platform?
I'm new to the blog wrld but I'm trying to get
started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding
knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!
#864 punjabi dress 09.02.2015 07:35
Have you ever considered about includinbg a little bit more than just ykur articles?

I mean, what you say is vaaluable and all. However think about if you added slme great photos or videos to
gife your posts more, "pop"! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this website
could undeniably be one of the most beneficial in its field.

Excellent blog!
#863 nike air max 90 09.02.2015 04:38
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to
assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your blog posts.

Any way I will be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.

Добавить комментарий

Прощай мой дом

JavaScript is disabled!
To display this content, you need a JavaScript capable browser.

О проекте

Всё об удивительном и загадочном мире льда и ледников, ландшафтов и людей и их жизни. Всё о планете Земля и о других планетах.

Интересы: снег, вода, горы, лед, катастрофы, все, климат, рельеф, ледники, приледниковые озёра, геоморфология, гляциология, новые теории и проекты в гляциологии, геологии и геоморфологии, а также качественная музыка и всё интересное и в науке, и в экспедициях, что сочтут для себя важным участники проекта, в природе и в жизни.. ....в общем всё.

Наши новости
Текущая информация для студентов
Ключевые слова

logotipЧитателям, слушателям и просто прохожим: сайт и все материалы, опубликованные на нём -  интеллектуальная собственность владельца сайта, и/или авторов соответствующих материалов. Ссылки на сайт, а также ссылки на авторов публикаций,


(и фотографий, разумеется, тоже) обязательны. Соответствующие законы РФ и других стран известны, лицензии - на месте. Воруют, конечно, и не взирая на копирайты, но мы создали сайт для порядочных людей. Не хочется об этом напоминать, но факт любой недобросовестной ссылки-цитирования или пересказа, во- первых, будет предан широчайшей огласке через сеть всеми популярными научными каналами. А далее, возможно, последует и во-вторых..... Спасибо.

Контакты: ran@mail.tomsknet.ru